This paper proposes a new approach for incorporating theoretical constraints on return forecasting models such as non-negativity of the conditional equity premium and sign restrictions on the coefficients linking state variables to the equity premium. Our approach makes use of Bayesian methods...

This paper investigates the effects on acquisitions of creditor-director presence on corporate boards. Using a hand-collected dataset for boards of large U.S. corporations, we find that companies with creditor-directors are more likely to engage in acquisitions with attributes that are...

We investigate how institutions affect productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) to China’s domestic industrial enterprises during 1998-2007. We examine three institutional features that comprise aspects of China’s “special characteristics”: (1) the different sources...

This paper investigates the conditions that may auger a reversal of China’s increasingly unequal levels of regional industrial productivity during China’s first two decades of economic reform. Using international and Chinese firm and industry data over the period 1995-2004, we estimate a...

This paper provides evidence that equity returns lead credit protection returns at daily and weekly frequencies, while credit protection returns do not lead equity returns. Our results indicate that informed traders are primarily active in the equity rather than the CDS market. These ?ndings are...

Recent research has revealed a wealth of information about the microeconomics of currency markets and thus the determination of exchange rates at short horizons. This information should help in designing exchange-rate models. This paper analyzes an existing model that was previously demonstrated...

This paper examines the relationship between sale rates and price shocks in art auctions. Using data on contemporary and impressionist art, we show that while sale rates appear to have little relationship to current prices, there exists a strong negative relationship of sale rates to unexpected...

This paper uses a sequence of government budget constraints to motivate estimates of returns on the U.S. Federal government debt. Our estimates differ conceptually and quantitatively from the interest payments reported by the U.S. government. We use our estimates to account for contributions to...