We demonstrate that in simple 2 X 2 games (cumulative) prospect theorypreferences can be evolutionarily stable, i.e. a population of players withprospect theory preferences can not be invaded by more rational players. Thisholds also if probability weighting is applied to the probabilities of...

We study probabilities which determine the payo of barrier options:the probability that an asset hits a barrier before maturity, theprobability that the asset is below the barrier at maturity, and theratio of both probabilities. The correct estimation of these probabilitieshas crucial eects on...

This paper presents a new method to detect informed trading activities in the options markets.An option trade is identified as informed when it is characterized by an unusual largeincrement in open interest and volume, induces large gains, and is not hedged in the stock market.For the period...