Görtz et al. (2022) estimate the effects of innovations to future total factor productivity (TFP) on financial markets. In a Bayesian vector autoregression, they identify a TFP news shock as one that explains the largest share of 40- quarter ahead forecast error variance (FEV) of TFP. Their...

This study pushes our understanding of research reliability by reproducing and replicating claims from 110 papers in leading economic and political science journals. The analysis involves computational reproducibility checks and robustness assessments. It reveals several patterns. First, we...

Two years after the end of the 2007-09 recession, the unemployment rate in the United States remains above 9 percent - roughly double its pre-recession level. ; Nie and Struby analyze the cyclical and structural components of this elevated level of unemployment, active and passive labor market...

We estimate the effects of the 2000-2002 Treasury Buyback program on Treasury returns and the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio. The buybacks had statistically significant, but economically very modest, effects on both bonds and bonds of similar securities: by...