We introduce a new point process, the dynamic contagion process, by gener- alising the Hawkes process and the Cox process with shot noise intensity. Our process includes both self-excited and externally excited jumps, which could be used to model the dynamic contagion impact from endogenous and...

Motivated by prediction problems for time series with heavy-tailed marginal distributions, we consider methods based on `local least absolute deviations' for estimating a regression median from dependent data. Unlike more conventional `local median' methods, which are in effect based on locally...

We investigate the time-varying ARCH (tvARCH) process. It is shown that it can be used to describe the slow decay of the sample autocorrelations of the squared returns often observed in financial time series, which warrants the further study of parameter estimation methods for the model. Since...

We consider a locally stationary model for financial log-returns whereby the returns are independent and the volatility is a piecewise-constant function with jumps of an unknown number and locations, defined on a compact interval to enable a meaningful estimation theory. We demonstrate that the...

The generalized varying coefficient partially linear model with growing number of predictors arises in many contemporary scientific endeavor. In this paper we set foot on both theoretical and practical sides of profile likelihood estimation and inference. When the number of parameters grows with...

We propose two new types of nonparametric tests for investigating multivariate regression functions. The tests are based on cumulative sums coupled with either minimum volume sets or inverse regression ideas; involving no multivariate nonparametric regression estimation. The methods proposed...

This paper concerns statistical tests for simple structures such as parametric models, lower order models and additivity in a general nonparametric autoregression setting. We propose to use a modified L2-distance between the nonparametric estimator of regression function and its counterpart...

In the analysis of microarray data, and in some other contemporary statistical problems, it is not uncommon to apply hypothesis tests in a highly simultaneous way. The number, N say, of tests used can be much larger than the sample sizes, n, to which the tests are applied, yet we wish to...

This paper examines the relationship between the level of public infrastructure and the level of productivity using panel data for the Spanish provinces over the period 1984-2004, a period which is particularly relevant due to the substantial changes occurring in the Spanish economy at that...

The paper establishes a correspondence between statistical disclosure control and forensic statistics regarding their common use of the concept of ‘probability of identification’. The paper then seeks to investigate what lessons for disclosure control can be learnt from the forensic...