Over the period 2015–2050 the consumption of natural gas of European OECD countries is expected to grow more than the consumption of any other energy source. Although these countries are interconnected and in most cases share a common currency, their wholesale national gas markets are highly...

Over the period 2015-2050 the consumption of natural gas of European OECD countries is expected to grow more than the consumption of any other energy source. Although these countries are interconnected and in most cases share a common currency, their wholesale national gas markets are highly...

The seasonal demand for natural gas requires supply flexibility. This "swing" is now largely provided in northwestern Europe by indigenous production. Declining reserves will increase the dependency on imports from far-off sources, which are less flexible. Hence, flexibility must be provided by...

The seasonal demand for natural gas requires supply flexibility. This "swing" is now largely provided in northwestern Europe by indigenous production. Declining reserves will increase the dependency on imports from far-off sources, which are less flexible. Hence, flexibility must be provided by...

We analyse the drivers of European Power Exchange (EPEX) retail electricity prices between 2012 and early 2022 using machine learning. The agnostic random forest approach that we use is able to reduce in-sample root mean square errors (RMSEs) by around 50% when compared to a standard linear...

The extractives industries are highly controversial but remain vitally important in much of the developing world. This paper considers their role in reducing energy poverty and discusses scenarios for the future of the global markets for oil, gas, and metals (emphasizing the increasing...

We analyse the drivers of European Power Exchange (EPEX) wholesale electricity prices between 2012 and early 2022 using machine learning. The agnostic random forest approach that we use is able to reduce in-sample root mean square errors (RMSEs) by around 50% when compared to a standard linear...

The extractives industries are highly controversial but remain vitally important in much of the developing world. This paper considers their role in reducing energy poverty and discusses scenarios for the future of the global markets for oil, gas, and metals (emphasizing the increasing...

This paper investigates volatility forecasting for crude oil and natural gas. The main objective of our research is to determine whether the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model of Corsi (2009) can be outperformed by harnessing information from a related energy commodity. We find that on...

This paper studies natural gas futures returns on EIA storage announcement days. More than 50% of the annual return is earned on these days. We find a significant difference between announcement and non-announcement day returns, which cannot be explained by the announcement surprise or other...