The paper analyses whether business cycle fluctuations affect long-run growth. This hypothesis is tested using quarterly time series for the G7-countries. A vector-autoregressive model containing total factor productivity and a survey-based direct measure of the business cycle is estimated. In...

Aggregated output in industrialized countries has become less volatile over the pastdecades. Whether this “Great Moderation” can be found in firm level data as wellremains disputed. We study the evolution of firm level output volatility using abalanced panel dataset on German firms that...

The paper describes the "Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) Forecasting Dashboard (ForDas)". This tool aims at providing, on a non-commercial basis, historical and actual macroeconomic forecast data for the Germany economy to researchers and interested audiences. The database renders it...