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Predicting birth-rates through German micro-census data : a comparison of probit and Boolean regression

Hufnagel, Rainer (contributor) - 2008

Boolean Regression. The data forming the basis for this investigation are from the German Micro-census waves of 1996 2002 and … comprise about 400 000 observations. Boolean Regression is used to predict how birth events depend on the socio …-economic characteristics of women and their male partners. Boolean Regression is compared to Probit. The data set is split into two halves in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003729733

A Unified Approach to Mortality Modelling Using State-Space Framework : Characterisation, Identification, Estimation and Forecasting

Fung, Simon Man Chung - 2016

This paper explores and develops alternative statistical representations and estimation approaches for dynamic mortality models. The framework we adopt is to reinterpret popular mortality models such as the Lee-Carter class of models in a general state-space modelling methodology, which allows...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012990764

The Evolution of Secularization : Cultural Transmission, Religion and Fertility Theory, Simulations and Evidence

Bar-El, Ronen - 2010

This study presents an evolutionary process of secularization that integrates a theoretical model, simulations, and an empirical estimation that employs data from 32 countries (included in the International Social Survey Program: Religion II – ISSP, 1998). Following Bisin and Verdier (2000,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013141739

The Effect of the Timing and Spacing of Births on the Level of Labor Market Involvement of Married Women

Troske, Kenneth R. - 2009

We use panel data from NLSY79 to analyze the effects of the timing and spacing of births on the labor supply of married women in a framework that accounts for the endogeneity of labor market and fertility decisions, the heterogeneity of the effects of children and their correlation with the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155577

The effect of the timing and spacing of births on the level of labor market involvement of married women

Troske, Kenneth R.; Voicu, Alexandru - 2009

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003898126

The effect of children on the level of labor market involvement of married women : what is the role of education?

Troske, Kenneth R.; Voicu, Alexandru - 2009

We analyze the way women's education influences the effect of children on their level of labor market involvement. We propose an econometric model that accounts for the endogeneity of labor market and fertility decisions, for the heterogeneity of the effects of children and their correlation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003826112

The Effect of Children on the Level of Labor Market Involvement of Married Women : What is the Role of Education?

Troske, Kenneth R. - 2009

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012764208

Joint Estimation of Sequential Labor Force Participation and Fertility Decisions Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques

Troske, Kenneth R.; Voicu, Alexandru - 2021

In this paper we estimate the causal effect of children on the labor supply of women using panel data on women from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79). We examine the effect of children both prior to and after birth as well as how the effect of children varies with the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013319106

Age- and sex-specific fertility in Germany until the year 2040 : the impact of international migration

Vanella, Patrizio - 2017

Good forecasts for future fertility developments are of high importance in political planning, especially regarding measures in social insurance. Fertility is the main driver of demographic change, since small fertility rates lead to a shrinking population and together with decreasing mortality...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011722114

A principal component simulation of age-specific fertility : impacts of family and social policy on reproductive behavior in Germany

Vanella, Patrizio; Deschermeier, Philipp - 2018

This contribution proposes a simulation approach for the indirect estimation of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and the total fertility rate (TFR) for Germany via time series modeling of the principal components of the ASFRs. The model accounts for cross-correlation and autocorrelation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011860247