Surveys of Professional Forecasters produce precise and timely point forecasts for key macroeconomic variables. However, the accompanying density forecasts are not as widely utilized, and there is no consensus about their quality. This is partly because such surveys are often conducted for...

We evaluate various economic modelsí relative performance in forecasting future US output growth and inflation on a monthly basis. Our approach takes into account the possibility that the modelsí relative performance can be varying over time. We show that the modelsí relative performance has,...

We evaluate various modelsí relative performance in forecasting future US output growth and inflation on a monthly basis. Our approach takes into account the possibility that the modelsí relative performance can be varying over time. We show that the modelsí relative performance has, in fact,...

This paper proposes a framework to implement regression-based tests of predictive ability in unstable environments, including, in particular, forecast unbiasedness and efficiency tests, commonly referred to as tests of forecast rationality. Our framework is general: it can be applied to...

We evaluate various models' relative performance in forecasting future US output growth and inflation on a monthly basis. Our approach takes into account the possibility that the models' relative performance can be varying over time. We show that the models' relative performance has, in fact,...

We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities. The methods include Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Cramér-von Mises-type tests for the correct specification of predictive densities robust to dynamic mis-specification. The novelty is that the tests can detect mis-specification in the...

We evaluate conditional predictive densities for U.S. output growth and inflation using a number of commonly used forecasting models that rely on a large number of macroeconomic predictors. More specifically, we evaluate how well conditional predictive densities based on the commonly used...