The paper investigates the linkages between temperature anomalies, radiative forcing and ENSO. By means of a new flexible trend modeling approach, we uncover a nonlinear linkage between radiative forcing and global temperature anomalies. The nonlinear trend closely tracks the low frequency...

Concurrent with the rapid development of the market for catastrophe (cat) bonds, a steady decline in their risk premia has been observed. Whether the latter trend is consistent with the evolution of natural disasters risk is an open question. Indeed, a large share of outstanding risk capital in...

This paper focuses on the choice between aggregate and disaggregate models, consisting of both univariate and multivariate specifications, in predicting aggregate variables. A formal hypothesis testing procedure for in-sample model selection is suggested. The empirical size and power of the test...