This paper argues that the sometimes-conflicting results of a modern revisionist literature on data mining in econometrics reflect different approaches to solving the central problem of model uncertainty in a science of non-experimental data. The literature has entered an exciting phase with...

Central bank communication is widely recognised as crucial to the implementation of monetary policy. This communication should enhance a central bank’s management of the inflation expectations of the financial markets as well as the general public – the latter being a part of the central...

This paper considers the role of fiscal policy as a component of stabilisation policy in South Africa. The South African economy – like many others, most notably the United States – has experienced considerable economic stability over the last decade. At stake in this paper is whether fiscal...

This paper builds on an earlier work in business cycle theory - explicitly in the classical cycle tradition of Burns and Mitchell (1946) and the more recent work by Harding and Pagan (e.g.: 2002a; 2005b; 2005a) - to identify and analyse business cycles in emerging market economies. The goal is to revisit...

This paper uses an SVAR approach to discuss the cyclicality of fiscal and monetary policy in South Africa since 1994. There is substantial South African literature on this topic, but much disagreement remains. Though not undisputed, there is growing consensus that monetary policy has contributed...

South Africa's democratic transition in 1994 created expectations of a dramatic turnaround in the economic performance. Trade and financial sanctions and internal political opposition to the apartheid government had contributed to the poorest ten-year growth performance (1984 - 1993) since the...

The FIFA World Cup hosted in South Africa during June/July 2010 was a much anticipated sport spectacle, but also widely expected to yield lasting and considerable economic benefits for the host country. Optimistic scenarios have encouraged these expectations, but there have also been cautionary...

The Accra Declaration offers a narrowly ideological interpretation of the modern economy and proceeds to reject neoliberalism as the ideological foundation thereof. This article argues for a less ideological approach to public theology in its comment on the economy in a two-step argument....

This paper uses a structural VAR methodology to identify aggregate demand and supply shocks to real output for the South African economy. Demand shocks, in turn, are separated into fiscal and monetary shocks. The model is estimated with quarterly data over two overlapping samples: 1960Q2-2006Q4...

The discrepancy between the observed and expected growth rates of African economies in cross-country or panel growth regressions is often summarised in a significant African dummy. However, the existence of this dummy may be an artifact of the panel data techniques used. The standard LSDV (least...