Default prior choices fixing Zellner''s g are predominant in the Bayesian Model Averaging literature, but tend to concentrate posterior mass on a tiny set of models. The paper demonstrates this supermodel effect and proposes to address it by a hyper-g prior, whose data-dependent shrinkage adapts...

Uncertainty associated with an optimal number of macroeconomic variables to be used in factor model is challenging since there is no criteria which states what kind of data should be used, how many variables to employ and does disaggregated data improve factor model’s forecasts. The paper...

The purpose of this paper is to conduct whether the disaggregated data of GDP gives us any additional information in the sense of forecasting accuracy. To test latter hypothesis author employs Stock-Watson factor model. GDP is disaggregated both on expenditure basis and on output basis. Thus...

This paper builds a short-term inflation projections (STIP) model for Latvia. The model is designed to forecast highly disaggregated consumer prices using cointegrated ARDL approach of [Pesaran, M., & Shin, Y. (1998). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration...

This paper builds a short-term inflation projections (STIP) model for Latvia. The model is designed to forecast highly disaggregated consumer prices using cointegrated ARDL approach of [Pesaran, M., & Shin, Y. (1998). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration...