This research provides a new way to validate and compare buy-till-you-defect [BTYD] models. These models specify a customer’s transaction and defection processes in a non-contractual setting. They are typically used to identify active customers in a com- pany’s customer base and to predict...

The Pareto/NBD model is one of the best-known models in customer base analysis. Extant literature has brought up three different Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedures for parameter estimation of this model. Nevertheless, three main research gaps remain. Firstly, the issue of hyper parameter...

We explore the implications for asset prices and implied volatilities in an equilibrium model of commodity production. Production of the commodity can be carried out in one of two regimes. In the first regime the reserves are set in constant decline while in the second regime new additions to...

This paper studies the implications for reserve lifetime and related quantities in a continuous time model of resource extraction under uncertainty. Both the resource price and the extracted amount are assumed to follow stochastic processes. Reserve lifetime is determined by the...

The validity of data envelopment analysis (DEA) efficiency estimators depends on the robustness of the production frontier to measurement errors, specification errors and the dimension of the input-output space. It has been proven that DEA estimators, within the interval (0, 1], are...

This paper presents an approach to mapping a process model onto a Bayesian network resulting in a Bayesian Process Network, which will be applied to process risk analysis. Exemplified by the model of Event-driven Process Chains, it is demonstrated how a process model can be mapped onto an...

Successful product line design and development often requires balancing technical and market trade-offs. Quantitative methods for optimizing product attribute levels using preference elicitation (e.g., conjoint) data are useful for many product types. However, products with substantial...

We propose a new model for transaction data that accounts jointly for the time duration between transactions and for the discreteness of the intraday stock price changes. Duration is assumed to follow a stochastic conditional duration model, while price discreteness is captured by an...

In small samples and especially in the case of small true default probabilities, standard approaches to credit default probability estimation have certain drawbacks. Most importantly, standard estimators tend to underestimate the true default probability which is of course an undesirable...