Due to the complexity of the traffic flow dynamics in urban road networks, most quantitative descriptions of city traffic so far are based on computer simulations. This contribution pursues a macroscopic (fluid-dynamic) simulation approach, which facilitates a simple simulation of congestion...

We develop the concept of ``dragon-kings'' corresponding to meaningful outliers, which are found to coexist with power laws in the distributions of event sizes under a broad range of conditions in a large variety of systems. These dragon-kings reveal the existence of mechanisms of...

The financial crisis of 2008, which started with an initially well-defined epicenter focused on mortgage backed securities (MBS), has been cascading into a global economic recession, whose increasing severity and uncertain duration has led and is continuing to lead to massive losses and damage...

In order to understand the different characteristics observed in real-world networks, one needs to analyze how and why networks form, the impact of network structure on agents' outcomes, and the evolution of networks over time. For this purpose, we combine a network game introduced by Ballester...

We present a self-consistent model for explosive financial bubbles, which combines a mean-reverting volatility process and a stochastic conditional return which reflects nonlinear positive feedbacks and continuous updates of the investors' beliefs and sentiments. The conditional expected returns...

We present a new theory of homogeneous volatility (and variance) estimators for arbitrary stochastic processes. The main tool of our theory is the parsimonious encoding of all the information contained in the OHLC prices for a given time interval by the joint distributions of the high-minusopen,...

A new delay equation is introduced to describe the punctuated evolution of complex nonlinear systems. A detailed analytical and numerical investigation provides the classification of all possible types of solutions for the dynamics of a population in the four main regimes dominated respectively...

By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the log-periodic power law (LPPL) model has been developed as...

We investigate topologically biased failure in scale-free networks with degree distribution $P(k) \propto k^{-\gamma}$ . The probability $p$ that an edge remains intact is assumed to depend on the degree $k$ of adjacent nodes $i$ and $j$ through $p_{ij} \propto (k_i k_j)^{-\alpha}$ . By varying...

We develop a dynamic network formation model that can explain the observed nestedness in real-world networks. Links are formed on the basis of agents’ centrality and have an exponentially distributed life time. We use stochastic stability to identify the networks to which the network formation...