The theme of unit roots in macroeconomic time series have received a great amount of attention in terms of theoretical and applied research over the last three decades. Since the seminal work by Nelson and Plosser (1982), testing for the presence of a unit root in the time series data has become...

Leybourne et al. (1998) have proved the possibility of a “converse Perron phenomenon” when conventional Dickey-Fuller tests are applied to determine the order of integration of a time series. That is, if the true generating process is I(1) but with a break, frequent spurious rejections of...

In this article, we use as case study the Spanish economy in the Early Modern period. We use recent time series data for the period 1492 - 1810. We consider the possibility that a linear cointegrated regression model with multiple structural changes would provide a good empirical description of...

We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is most pronounced at intermediate forecasting...

We use inflation and income growth expectations from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey to measure the subjective expected pass-through of inflation to income in the main euro area countries. By aggregating consumers' responses to probabilistic questions, we obtain significantly higher...

To which extent do equity and housing hedge against inflation? Despite the extensive literature, there is only little consensus. This paper presents evidence on this question from the Jordà–Schularick–Taylor Macrohistory Database covering 16 countries from 1870 to 2020. The results depend...

This study provides country-specific empirical evidence on the optimal inflation-growth threshold in the ECOWAS (WAEMU and WAMZ) region from 1996-2022. Although there is large empirical literature on this subject, however, previous studies generally focused on exogenous approaches of determining...

We examine how the occurrence of natural disasters impact the US economy and financial markets using monthly data since 2000. Our analysis reveals large sustained adverse effects of disasters on overall economic activity, with significant implications across various sectors including labor,...

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to classifying inflation-targeting (IT) economies based on fractionally integrated processes. Motivated by the rising prevalence and diversity of IT strategies, we leverage variation in the persistence of inflation rate series to identify four de facto...