A large part of the current debate on US stock price behavior concentrates on the question of whether stock prices are driven by fundamentals or by non-fundamental factors. In this paper we put forward the hypothesis that a present value model with time-varying expected returns provides an...

L'analyse de la production des services publics locaux, sans doute par excès de juridisme, a tendance à se limiter à une approche en termes de gestion de ces services. Ce point de vue occulte une dimension importante de cette production, la production d'infrastructures, et nuit à une analyse...

The efficient market hypothesis describes an efficient market as one in which investors cannot consistently predict stock returns because prices instantly reflect all the information flowing into the market. However, return predictability has been documented in many markets. This study tests the...

Civil war is often caused by poverty, and further demolishes existing capital. Such a vicious circle is detrimental for economic development of countries experiencing civil war. Civil war may also contribute to creative destructions of traditional economic, social and political system, leading...

The present value model of the current account has been very popular, as it provides an optimal benchmark to which actual current account series have often been compared. We show why persistence in observed current account data makes the estimated optimal series very sensitive to small-sample...

The present value model of the current account has been very popular, as it provides an optimal benchmark to which actual current account series have often been compared. We show why persistence in observed current account data makes the estimated optimal series very sensitive to small-sample...

A large part of the current debate on US stock price behavior concentrates on the question of whether stock prices are driven by fundamentals or by non-fundamental factors. In this paper we put forward the hypothesis that a present value model with time-varying expected returns provides an...

We review the constant discount rate present value model of farmland prices using non-stationary panel data analysis. We use panel unit root and cointegration analysis to test if the present value model holds for a sample of 31 U.S. States covering the period 1960-2000. Preliminary results...

Earlier studies usually indicate that farmland prices and cash rents are not cointegrated, a finding that seems at odds with the implications of the present value model. The main objective of this study is to explore whether this absence of empirical support for the present value model can be...