Historical Simulation (HS) and its variant, the Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS), are the most widely used Value-at-Risk forecast methods at commercial banks. These forecast methods are traditionally evaluated by means of the unconditional backtest. This paper formally shows that the...

This article proposes omnibus specification tests of parametric dynamic quantile regression models. Contrary to the existing procedures, we allow for a flexible and general specification framework where a possibly continuum of quantiles are simultaneously specified. This is the case for many...

This article proposes a general class of joint and marginal diagnostic tests for parametric conditional mean and variance models of possibly nonlinear non-Markovian time series sequences. The use of joint and marginal tests is motivated from the fact that marginal tests for the conditional...

The purpose of the present paper is to relate two important concepts of time series analysis, namely, nonlinearity and persistence. Traditional mea- sures of persistence are based on correlations or periodograms, which may be inappropriate under nonlinearity and/or non-Gaussianity. This article...

One of the implications of the creation of Basel Committee on Banking Supervision was the implementation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the standard tool for measuring market risk. Since then, the capital requirements of commercial banks with trading activities are based on VaR estimates. Therefore,...

A new estimator for linear models with endogenous regressors and strictly exogenous instruments is proposed. The new estimator, called the Integrated Instrumental Variables (IIV) estimator, only requires minimal assumptions to identify the true parameters, thereby providing a potential robust...

This paper theoretically and empirically analyzes backtesting portfolio VaR with estimation risk in an intrinsically multivariate framework. For the fi rst time in the literature, it takes into account the estimation of portfolio weights in forecasting portfolio VaR and its impact on...