We examine the relationship between prices and interest rates for seven advanced economies in the period up to 1913, emphasizing the UK. There is a significant long-run positive relationship between prices and interest rates for the core commodity standard countries. Keynes (1930) labelled this...

We examine the relationship between prices and interest rates for seven advanced economies in the period up to 1913, emphasizing the UK. There is a significant long-run positive relationship between prices and interest rates for the core commodity standard countries. Keynes (1930) labelled this...

We develop simple diagrams that can be used by undergraduates to understand interest rate setting by policy- makers. We combine an inflation target, Fisher equation, policy reaction function and short and long run aggregate supply analysis to give a depiction of the policy problem. We illustrate...

In the canonical monetary policy model, money is endogenous to the optimal path for interest rates, output. But when liquidity provision by banks dominates the demand for transactions money from the real economy, money is likely to contain information for future output and inflation because of...

We re-connect money to inflation using Goodfriend and McCallum’s (2007) model where banks supply loans to cash-in-advance constrained consumers on the basis of the value of collateral provided and the monitoring skills of banks. We show that when shocks to monitoring and collateral dominate...

We show that a flex-price two-sector open economy DSGE model can explain the poor degree of international risk sharing and exchange rate disconnect. We use a suite of model evaluation measures and examine the role of (i) traded and non-traded sectors; (ii) financial market incompleteness; (iii)...

Koop, Pesaran and Smith (2011) suggest a simple diagnostic indicator for the Bayesian estimation of the parameters of a DSGE model. They show that, if a parameter is well identified, the precision of the posterior should improve as the (artificial) data size T increases, and the indicator checks...

I outline a simple roadmap for work in micro-founded models. Rather than abandoning the route to further micro-foundations and returning to ad hoc economics, the techniques we have used over the past two decades to develop micro-founded business cycle models will allow us to develop models with...