Ensemble methods aim at improving the predictive performance of a given statistical learning or model fitting technique. The general principleof ensemble methods is to construct a linear combinationof some model fitting methods, instead of using a single fit of the method.

We derive some decision rules to select best predictive regression models in a credibility context, that is, in a 'random effects' linear regression model with replicates. In contrast to usual model selection techniques on a collective level, our proposal allows to detect individual structures,...

Ensemble methods aim at improving the predictive performance of a given statistical learning or model fitting technique. The general principleof ensemble methods is to construct a linear combinationof some model fitting methods, instead of using a single fit of the method.

We propose a flexible GARCH-type model for the prediction of volatility in financial time series. The approach relies on the idea of using multivariate B-splines of lagged observations and volatilities. Estimation of such a B-spline basis expansion is constructed within the likelihood framework...