This paper analyzes the risk-taking behavior of financial intuitions that have guarantees (e.g., banks with deposit insurance or Government Sponsored Enterprises with implicit guarantees) and/or institutions that find it beneficial to develop a reputation for not taking risk. For instance, banks...

This paper analyzes the risk-taking behavior of financial intuitions that have guarantees (e.g., banks with deposit insurance or Government Sponsored Enterprises with implicit guarantees) and/or institutions that find it beneficial to develop a reputation for not taking risk. For instance, banks...

It has been widely assumed that there was a bubble in the U.S. housing market after 1999. This paper analyzes the extent to which that was true. We define a bubble as: (1) a regime shift that is characterized by a change in the properties of deviations from the fundamentals of house price...

The recent surge in property values in China has been similar to the surge in the U.S before the crash in 2007. This raises concerns about whether China is destined to have a crash as well. We estimate similar models of property values for the two countries, in order to compare price dynamics...

This paper analyzes the bubble in property values across cities in the U.S. from 1999 through 2005. We find evidence of momentum in house price growth (relative to growth in rents) away from the underlying “fundamentals” throughout the 1980-2005 period; however, momentum increased after 1999....

"This book contends that the housing markets and shadow banking have been involved in a kind of "dance" over the last two decades. It traces this dance to be between the roles of mortgage markets since the 1980s in both the US and China and the developments of securitization and "shadow banks."...