This paper presents unprecedented exchange rate forecasting results, based upon a new model that approximates the gap between the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate and the actual exchange rate with the long-maturity forward exchange rate. The theoretical derivation of our forecasting...

The optimal currency for a country is an important topic. While it is difficult to identify the best option overall, for all stakeholders and including political considerations, it is easier to answer the more limited question of the title: Which currency is best for business in a small country?...

The optimal currency for a country is an important topic. While it is difficult to identify the best option overall, for all stakeholders and including political considerations, it is easier to answer the more limited question of the title: Which currency is best for business in a small country?...

While most macroeconomic indicators, analyzed on a longer period of time, may indicate the "health" of an economy, the exchange rate evolution reveals, generally, the increase or decrease, non seldom brutal, of the "temperature" of an economy. Thus, the analysis of the exchange rates evolution...

The 2008 financial crisis has rekindled interest in the issue of early warning signals (EWS) of financial distress. It has also triggered renewed interest in the literature on currency crises, with many countries, especially among emerging market economies, experiencing severe exchange market...

This paper examines how exchange rate volatility and Korean banks' foreign exchange liquidity mismatches interacted with each other during the Global Financial Crisis, and whether the vulnerability stemming from this interaction has been reduced since then. Structural and cyclical changes after...