This chapter reviews the evidence of predictability in U.S. residential and commercial real estate markets. First, we highlight the main methodologies used in the construction of real estate indices, their underlying assumptions and their impact on the stochastic properties of the resultant...

We use a parametric portfolio approach to estimate optimal commercial real estate portfolio policies. We do so using the NCREIF data set of commercial properties over the sample period 1984:Q2 to 2009:Q1. The richness of this extensive data set and the flexibility of the parametric portfolio...

We study complexity in the market for securitized products, a market at the heart of the financial crisis of 2007-2009. The complexity of these products rose substantially in the years preceding the financial crisis. We find that securities in more complex deals default more and have lower...