Exploiting changes in the geography of economic integration in Europe, this paper quantifies the effects of Brexit from ex post to ex ante using structural gravity. By isolating the directional treatment effects of EU agreements for the UK, the analysis reveals important heterogeneity across...

Using data from the US commodity flow surveys, we show that the historical Union-Confederacy border lowers contemporaneous trade between US states by about 16 percentrelative to trade flows within the former alliances. Amongst one million placebos, thereis no other constellation of state...

Since June 2007, the EU and India have been negotiating a comprehensive free trade agreement, but negotiations broke down in 2013. Nevertheless, both sides have expressed their desire to revive talks on the Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA). To quantify potential economic...

The Schengen agreement has guaranteed unchecked travel across internal EUborders since 1995. Has it also facilitated trade flows? Our econometric analysissuggests that Schengen has boosted trade by 3% on average (equivalent to a drop in tariffs by 0.7 percentage points). Goods trade is more...

Climate research suggests that global warming will lead to more frequent and more extreme natural disasters. Most disasters are local events with effects on local economic activity. Hence, assessing their economic impacts with the help of econometric country-level analysis may lead to biased...

Since the 1990s,Germany and other European countries have become more open to trade. The period is characterized by the fall of the iron curtain, the surge of China and its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the introduction of the Euro, the creation of the Schengen area, the...

Using data from the US commodity flow surveys, we show that the historical Union-Confederacy border lowers contemporaneous trade between US states by about 16 percentrelative to trade flows within the former alliances. Amongst one million placebos, thereis no other constellation of state...

Climate research suggests that global warming will lead to more frequent and more extreme natural disasters. Most disasters are local events with effects on local economic growth. Hence, assessing their economic impacts with the help of econometric country-level analysis may lead to biased...

We develop a simple methodology to estimate monthly aggregate supply and demand conditions from bilateral international trade data for about 180 countries and 40 years. We apply our method to measure the short-run effects of natural disasters. In line with theoretical considerations, we find...