Applying basic statistical methods to a large sample of currency crises, it is shown that a variety of measures of monetary policy are significantly related to the outcome of a speculative attack. Unlike in the comparable study of Kraay (1999), discount rates have a significant but...

Managed volatility strategies adjust market exposure in inverse relation to a risk estimate, to stabilize realized portfolio volatility through time. Our paper examines strategy performance from an investment practitioner perspective. Using long-term data from the Standard & Poor's 500, we show...

High interest rates to defend the exchange rate signal that a government is committed to fixed exchange rates, but may also signal weak fundamentals. We test the effectiveness of the interest rate defense by disaggregating into the effects on future interest rates differentials, expectations of...

High interest rates to defend the exchange rate signal that a government is committed to fixed exchange rates, but may also signal weak fundamentals. We test the effectiveness of the interest rate defense by disaggregating into the effects on future interest rates differentials, expectations of...

It has been known since at least the groundbreaking work of Fama and French (1992) that there are specific attributes, so called factors, that can help predict the returns of individual assets above the return of the broader market. Since these predictive characteristics arise out of sample...

In a low-rate environment, government bonds may not mitigate equity risk as well as they have in the past. This structural shift has profound implications for asset allocation. Historically, the expected return of government bonds has been positive, and they have mitigated downside risk. In...