This paper contains a description of a small quarterly forecasting model for the Finnish economy. We evaluate the forecasting properties of the model by means of stochastic simulation involving both the endogenous and exogenous variables of the model. The simulations allow us to identify and...

The failure to predict the surge in inflation in 2021 raises questions about whether we are better equipped to anticipate a future decline in inflation. What tools do we intend to use for predicting the trajectory of inflation? Are we still primarily relying on survey data regarding inflation...

This paper examines the reasons for the declining path of inflation since the 1970s. In particular, it focusses on the role of globalization - covering both changes in the global market structure and technical and structural developments in trade and production. In addition, the paper deals with...

This paper contains a description of a small quarterly model for the Finnish economy model (formerly, the QMED model).In addition to the basic features of this macroeconomic model, we report results from some stochastic simulations which illustrate the model's properties.Thus, the role of...

This paper contains a description of a small quarterly forecasting model for the Finnish economy.We evaluate the forecasting properties of the model by means of stochastic simulation involving both the endogenous and exogenous variables of the model.The simulations allow us to identify and...

This paper provides an answer to the question of how to improve the forecasting performance of a macro model to better account for economic developments and how to evaluate the forecasting uncertainty.The main tool in this assessment is stochastic simulation.Stochastic simulations in this paper...

Cyclically adjusted government budget balances have become increasingly popular as a means of analysing the fiscal situation and changes in policy that result from the intentional actions of the government.As the actual budget balances are affected both by cyclical factors ('automatic...

The paper investigates the relationship between relative price movements and changes in the aggregate price level using monthly data on Finland's Consumer Price Index and its components from the period covering the past eight and a half years.This was a period of very low inflation.The rate of...

Global trade has been exceptionally weak over the past four years. While global trade grew at approximately twice the rate of GDP prior to the Great Recession, the ratio of global trade to GDP growth has declined to about unity since 2012. This paper assesses to what extent the change in the...