This paper examines whether the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) can be used for modeling and forecasting a more refined business cycle classification beyond the usual distinction between expansions and contractions. Univariate Markov-switching models for monthly coincident...

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with 'mild' and 'severe'...

We explore a century-long dataset with a Markov-switching structural VAR to estimate state-dependent government spending multipliers. We show that the multiplier values are statistically larger during recessions than during expansions. However, the multipliers are always smaller than 1. Our...

The factor structure of the U.S. economy appears to change over time. Unlike previous studies which suggest this is due to permanent structural breaks in factor loadings, I argue instead that the volatility and persistence of factor processes undergo recurring changes related to the business...

Wir konstruieren ein neues Modell unbeobachteter Komponenten mit Markov-Switching zur Analyse von Hysterese-Effekten, also der Verfestigung ursprünglich zyklischer Fluktuationen. Das Modell kombiniert die Bestandteile einer Trend-Zyklus Zerlegung, der Identifikation von gegenseitigen...

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between oil price changes and the output growth in Turkey. Design/methodology/approach - The data were taken from International Financial Statistics databases, consisting of monthly data for the period 1986:01-2014:09....

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with 'mild' and 'severe'...

This paper develops a multivariate regime switching monetary policy model for the US economy. To exploit a large dataset we use a factor-augmented VAR with discrete regime shifts, capturing distinct business cycle phases. The transition probabilities are modelled as time-varying, depending on a...