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The idea that integrates parts of this dissertation is that high-frequency data allow for more precise and robust methods for forecasting financial volatility and elucidating the role of volatility in forming asset prices. Thus, the first two chapters compare the performance of model-free...
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Stock market volatility clusters in time, carries a risk premium, is fractionally integrated, and exhibits asymmetric leverage effects relative to returns. This paper develops a first internally consistent equilibrium based explanation for these longstanding empirical facts. The model is cast in...
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The dynamic dependencies in financial market volatility are generally well described by a long-memory fractionally integrated process. At the same time, the volatility risk premium, defined as the difference between the ex-post realized volatility and the market’s ex-ante expectation thereof,...
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We estimate a joint multivariate jump-diffusion model using daily data for three fundamental stock market factors: market return, value, and momentum. We focus on the description of risk represented by the joint dynamics of factor volatilities and extreme events. With regard to extreme events,...
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This paper compares model-based and reduced-form forecasts of financial volatility when high-frequency return data are available. We derived exact formulas for the forecast errors and analyzed the contribution of the "wrong" data modeling and errors in forecast inputs. The comparison is made for...
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