This study investigates usefulness of business tendency surveys in industrial sector for out-of-sample prediction of growth of industrial production in Russia. A special attention is paid to performance of survey-augmented models during the recent Great Recession 2008/2009. Using the real-time...

The paper is based on the data of surveys conducted among the managers of industrial enterprises. These surveys have been conducted by the IET according to the European harmonized methodology on a monthly basis since September 1992 and encompass the whole territory of the Russian Federation. The...

By the end of 2015, according to business surveys conducted by the Gaidar Institute, the Russian industry still will be unable to post statistically indisputable output growth. Weak demand, which can not be revived neither by the producers' price reduction nor by ruble devaluation and import...

According to the Gaidar Institute's business survey data1, the September performance score proved pessimistic rather than otherwise. The dynamics of demand and output underwent no fundamental change which discouraged enterprises and resulted in a lower satisfaction with demand and an increase in...

Import substitution in the Russian industry shows obvious signs of a slowdown. Both comparative results of actually implemented import substitution quarter-on-quarter and plans of enterprises for the last quarter of the current year attest to this. At the same time, import substitution of...

First September data obtained from the Gaidar Institute business surveys has demonstrated high adjustment of Russian industry to 2015 recession pattern. Sluggish negative demand dynamic suits the majority of enterprises and allows them to steadily control finished products' stocks. Output growth...

The final evaluation of the Industry Adaptability (‘Normality') Index (IAI) for Q2 2017 has produced exactly the same results as our previous estimates: the Russian industrial sector has been increasingly adapting to the sluggish recovery from the crisis of 2015–2016. The IAI has come to...