Introduction -- Fundamentals of commodity economics : supply -- Fundamentals of commodity economics : demand -- Fundamentals of commodity derivatives -- Economics & financial activities behind derivatives -- Real optionality & valuation -- Commodity beta : diversification and inflation...

How effective are “smart” sanctions in imposing costs on an adversary? We consider this question in a model where a targeted regime may choose to “shield” strategically important firms from harm. Using detailed firm and individual data, we estimate the impact on firm performance from...

This paper proposes a new methodology for differentiating oil demand and supply shocks using the information content of forward-looking asset prices for crude oil and refined products. Building upon the industry folk wisdom that demand and supply shocks have asymmetric passthrough dynamics...

This paper introduces a set of novel synthetic derivatives called symphonic options that can decompose interrelated financial risks into underlying primitives based on the co-movement of two or more existing financial assets. This allows for more complete markets to support superior risk...

How effective are "smart" sanctions in imposing costs on an adversary? We consider this question in a model where a targeted regime may choose to "shield" strategically important firms from harm. Using detailed firm and individual data, we estimate the impact on firm performance from smart...

How effective are “smart” sanctions in imposing costs on an adversary? We consider this question in a model where a targeted regime may choose to “shield” strategically important firms from harm. Using detailed firm and individual data, we estimate the impact on firm performance from...

Accurately measuring oil production in low-governance contexts is an important task. Many terrorist organizations and insurgencies-including the Islamic State group, also known as ISIL/ISIS or Daesh-tap oil as a revenue source. Understanding spatial and temporal variation in production in their...