Past research argues that changes in adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) payments may lead households to cut back on consumption. These outcomes are more likely if ARM borrowers are borrowing constrained, and we show in this paper that ARM borrowers exhibit attitudes towards borrowing and behavior...

Uninsurable income risk is often cited as an explanation for empirical deviations from the Lifecycle/Permanent-Income Hypothesis such as the hump-shaped lifecycle profile of mean consumption. In this paper, we solve a lifecycle consumption model using a calibrated income process that matches the...

We propose a novel approach to estimate household income uncertainty at various future horizons, and characterize how the estimated uncertainty evolves over the life cycle. We measure income uncertainty as the variance of linear forecast errors conditional on information available to households...