Campbell and Shiller [1991], Cochrane and Piazzesi [2005], Diebold and Li [2006] and many others have shown that today's yield curve possesses significant information about the dynamics of future yields. Vector autoregression (VAR) models can forecast interest rates with different maturities,...

The aim of this paper is to forecast (out-of-sample) the distribution of financial returns based on realized volatility measures constructed from high-frequency returns. We adopt a semi-parametric model for the distribution by assuming that the return quantiles depend on the realized measures...

We present resiliency as a measure of liquidity, and assess its relationship to expected returns. We establish a covariance-based measure, RES, that captures opening period resiliency and, using it, find a significant non-resiliency premium that ranges from 33 to 57 basis points per month. The...