The paper presents the procedure and two structural macroeconometric models used at the National Bank of Poland for producing regular quarterly inflation projections. One of the models is a small macroeconomic model based on the New Keynesian Phillips curve, the IS curve and the exchange rate...

The importance of credit in the monetary transmission mechanism has recently attained a lot of attention due to a growing understanding that credit market imperfections can have an impact on the monetary policy effectiveness. In this study, using Vector Error Correction Models (VECMs) and...

In the light of the results of empirical studies presented in the Report and the literature available it may be concluded that the form of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland is consistent with structural features of the Polish economy and coincides with those characteristic of...

The paper provides an overview of the literature on the role of monetary aggregates for conducting monetary policy and attempts to assess the role of these aggregates in the Polish monetary policy. We compare theoretical and empirical arguments which justify or undermine the need for usage of...

The aim of the paper is to check the influence of the degree of forward-lookingness of economic agents on the optimal monetary policy rules, using several versions of a small, highly aggregated structural model describing the transmission mechanism in the spirit of the New Keynesian School. We...

Our paper is a case study devoted to a country which belongs to a group of less developed EMEs (LDEMEs), not depending on natural resources. In spite of many features which distinguish such countries from developed market economies, they are frequently modelled basing on assumptions which are...

On 4 March 2011, SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum and the National Bank of Poland jointly organised a conference on the theme of: "Monetary Policy after the Crisis". Following a call for papers with a large number of submissions, the scientific committee selected 9 papers, which...

Observed macroeconomic data – notably GDP growth rate, inflation and interest rates – can be, and usually are skewed. Economists attempt to fit models to data by matching first and second moments or co-moments, but skewness is usually neglected. It is so probably because skewness cannot...

The paper documents elements of work on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) SOEPL model that has been carried out in recent years at the National Bank of Poland. In 2009 a new version of the model was developed (called SOEPL−2009) which in 2010 is to support an econometric model...

In the paper we show the macroeconomic effects of a monetary policy shock using both recursive and non-recursive SVAR decomposition. We find that the responsiveness of the CPI index and output in Poland is smaller and slower than in the euro zone. Using panel data we check how bank-specific...