We investigate forecasting in models that condition on variables for which future values are unknown. We consider the role of the significance level because it guides the binary decisions whether to include or exclude variables. The analysis is extended by allowing for a structural break, either...

We model UK price and wage inflation, productivity and unemployment over a century and ahalf of data, selecting dynamics, relevant variables, non-linearities and location and trend shifts using indicator saturation estimation. The four congruent econometric equations highlight complexinteracting...