Since President Idris Deby's violent death in April 2021, the ruling elite in Chad have sought to protect their hold on power by promoting the dynastic succession of his son Mahamat. The risks of this strategy are becoming clearer with the October 2022 decision to prolong the transition by...

Prevailing approaches to understanding Islamist mobilisation struggle to explain why militant Islamist movements in Libya initially spread rapidly after 2011 and then disappeared almost overnight. Their decline poses a puzzle for conventional analyses. Tactical choices, such as the search for...

Resource curse theory claims that resource abundance encourages violent conflict. A study of 37 oil-producing developing countries, however, reveals that oil states with very high levels of oil revenue are remarkably stable. An analysis of the ways in which governments spend oil revenues...

The upheavals in the Arab world since 2011 have led to civil wars in three countries: Libya, Syria and Yemen. In all three cases, the United Nations have tried to mediate agreements between the conflicting parties to bring about peace through power-sharing. In this endeavour, the UN can lean on...

In Sudan, all eyes are currently on the preparations for the referendum on southern independence, scheduled for 9 January 2011. The southern government and international actors are expecting a clear vote for independence. Most attention is currently focussed on disputes between the central and...

The dimensions of organized criminal activity in the Sahel region have fundamentally changed in recent years. As profits from cocaine smuggling and abductions of foreign nationals increase substantially, criminal networks are expanding their influence, eroding both the rule of law and existing...

Under pressure from a rebellion, an international intervention, and comprehensive sanctions, Muammar al-Qaddafi's regime is on the verge of collapse. As of late March 2011, regime forces are focussed on retaining control of north-western Libya, raising the prospect of protracted civil war and...