Forecasts for the Chinese economy are often seen as unreliable. This impedes a proper assessment of the country’s course, and given that China is the world’s second-largest economy, it also has implications for international projections. This article examines the accuracy of real GDP...

The task of vitalizing the east German economy was severely underestimated - by politicians as well as by both the academic and the business community. Despite all the encouraging signs in east Germany, which undeniably exist, the process will take more time, require more money, and need more...

Gute Politik und Glück – Was uns die fabelhaften 90er Jahre der USA lehren und was nicht Die Arbeit von Blinder/Yellen ist eine der ersten, die sich mit dem makroökonomischen Hintergrund des langen Aufschwungs der USA in den 90er Jahren auseinandersetzt. Sie arbeitet eindrucksvoll das gute...

This paper applies linear discriminant analysis to classify West German business cycles from 1955 to 1994 into a four phase scheme (upswing, downswing, and upper/lower turning point phases). It describes the scheme as well as the selection of the classifying variables, and presents...

Econometric models are a widely used and powerful tool in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. Admittedly, their acceptance by the scientific community has had some hard times during the seventies and eighties: a general decline in the reputation of macroeconomics, the Lucas critique, and...