In this paper, we propose a state-varying endogenous regime switching model (the SERS model), which includes the endogenous regime switching model by Chang, Choi and Park (2017), the CCP model, as a special case. To estimate the unknown parameters involved in the SERS model, we propose a maximum...

Bandwidth plays an important role in determining the performance of local linear estimators. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to bandwidth selection for local linear estimation of time-varying coefficient time series models, where the errors are assumed to follow the Gaussian kernel...

In this paper, we propose three new predictive models: the multi-step nonparametric predictive regression model and the multi-step additive predictive regression model, in which the predictive variables are locally stationary time series; and the multi-step time-varying coefficient predictive...