We propose methods for testing hypothesis of non-causality at various horizons, as defined in Dufour and Renault (1998, Econometrica). We study in detail the case of VAR models and we propose linear methods based on running vector autoregressions at different horizons. While the hypotheses...

The Swiss Federal government finances are in an excellent shape: debt is small (and decreasing), and carries a low interest rate. This paper reviews the prospects for the Swiss finances drawing on the recent literature. We argue that the current policy of running surpluses and paying down the...

The Swiss Federal government finances are in an excellent shape: debt is small (and decreasing), and carries a low interest rate. This paper reviews the prospects for the Swiss finances drawing on the recent literature. We argue that the current policy of running surpluses and paying down the...

L’annulation de la dette des pays pauvres a permis de restaurer leur situation financière. Certaines politiques de ré-endettement en cours, à l’égard notamment de prêteurs émergents, présentent toutefois des risques pour ces économies.

Monetary conditions and economic activity in the euro area. With a VAR model, we show that the economies of the euro area are strongly dependent on the monetary conditions (short term interest rate, exchange rate). In the long-run, the industrial activity of the area enters in a co-integrating...