This paper proposes two new coincident probabilistic cyclical indicators developed by the Bank of France in order to follow, on a monthly basis, the French economic activity. The first one is an indicator which aims at detecting the turning points of the acceleration cycle while the second one...

This working paper presents a new coincident economic indicator developed by the COE, able to detect in real time peaks and troughs of the american business cycle. This probabilistic indicator is based on the Markov-Switching model proposed by Hamilton (1989), applied to various economic time...

This paper focuses on the synchronization of supply and demand shocks in West Africa given the willingness of ECOWAS Heads of State to create a single currency by 2020. Based on the methodology of Blanchard and Quah (1989), the paper relies on structural autoregressive vector models (SVAR) to...

The Central Bank of Congo (BCC) lowered policy rate in response to uncertainty surrounding COVID-19. The impact of the pandemic on the economy is uncertain and depends on several factors. This cut in the policy rate would not help the economy to limit the fallout from COVID-19, so we should...

This article aims at estimating leading indicators of the American economy with financial variables. We use two types of hidden Markov chains models, a quantitative one (Krolzig (1997)) and a qualitative one (Gregoir and Lenglart (2000)). These models provide a robust and reliable framework to...

In this article we estimate a time-varying " natural " rate of interest (TVNRI) for a synthetic euro area over the period 1979Q1-2002Q4 using a small backward-looking macroeconomic model, broadly following a methodology developed by Laubach and Williams (2003) for the United States. The Kalman...

Traditional structural models cannot distinguish whether changes in activity are a function of altered expectations today or lagged responses to past plans. Polynomial-adjustment-cost (PAC) models remove this ambiguity by explicitly separating observed dynamic behaviour into movements that have...