This study compares the predictive performance of the conditional forecasting technique against the unconditional technique. The conditional technique consist of taking into account the information available on an endogenous variable over part of the forecast horizon. We develop a Bayesian VAR...

La littérature sur l'instabilité macroéconomique couvre un champ extrêmement vaste qui se révèle par le spectre très large de mesures utilisées pour appréhender ce phénomène. Le choix de la mesure de l'instabilité macroéconomique apparait généralement peu discuté sous le...

In this paper, we estimate and analyse a set of equations of French inflation for forecasting purpose at the horizon of three months, six months and one year. A different equation is associated to each horizon. This approach has the advantage of modeling directly the variable of interest at the...

Short-term analysts use many tools to forecast economic activity. Among these tools, estimating and, then, simulating univariate models is very common. Most of the time the series used for the variable of interest as well as for the regressors are last available releases. Except for the latter...

This work aims at analysing the dynamics of macroeconomic fluctuations in Cameroon, using a semi-structural VAR to determine the sources of its macroeconomic fluctuations. The results obtained point out that the macroeconomic fluctuations in Cameroon, even though influenced by external shocks,...

The economists provide forecasts in connection with future economic facts by using statistical data to conduct these forecasts. The goal of this study is to provide an academic paper for the universities in the analysis of forecasting. We analyzed and estimated the coefficient of the reserve...

The need to strengthen the macroprudential orientation of financial regulatory and supervisory frameworks stays a priority for financial and real healthy. Stability financial threatened with endogenous and exogenous risks translating crises, hence it has to a healthy regulation for the reduction...

In this paper, we study the dynamic propagation of the output and the existence of a significant n nominal component in the Solow residual using a DGE model. Nominal wage rigidity and labor retention are introduced as internal propagation mechanisms. The economy is disrupted by technological,...

In this paper, we study real wage fluctuations in response to monetary shocks. We estimate five different models corresponding to five sets of monetary policy restrictions. Monetary shocks are measured by innovations in the nominal interest rate, total reserves and non-borrowed reserves. Our...

In this paper, we study the dynamic propagation of the output and the existence of a significant n nominal component in the Solow residual using a DGE model. Nominal wage rigidity and labor retention are introduced as internal propagation mechanisms. The economy is disrupted by technological,...