We propose methods for testing hypothesis of non-causality at various horizons, as defined in Dufour and Renault (1998, Econometrica). We study in detail the case of VAR models and we propose linear methods based on running vector autoregressions at different horizons. While the hypotheses...

This study compares the predictive performance of the conditional forecasting technique against the unconditional technique. The conditional technique consist of taking into account the information available on an endogenous variable over part of the forecast horizon. We develop a Bayesian VAR...

Due to their early release, Business Tendency Surveys (BTS) are widely used in short term forecasting. Their questions are mainly qualitative; answers are most often used to calculate balances of opinions, which are defined as the difference between the proportions of positive answers with...

Turkey is at a crossroads. After hitting the most severe crisis of its recent history in 2000-2001, the economy bounced back and is now among the fastest growing economies in the OECD. A new institutional framework for monetary and fiscal policies as well as for product, labour and financial...

Following accession to the European Union the big issue for the Czech Republic is to strengthen growth prospects. Growth potential at present is somewhat above 3%, implying a moderate pace of catch-up to living standards in the EU and elsewhere. There is room for greater ambition in growth...

The CEPII is France's leading institute for research on the international economy. The Centre's independence is guaranteed by its Board, which sets out the strategic guidelines for the CEPII's research. The Board comprises government officials, business personalities, trade unionists and...

L’Union européenne (UE) a commandité au bureau d’études ADE une évaluation indépendante de sa coopération avec la République Togolaise durant la période 2007-2013. L’objectif principal est de renseigner l’UE sur les résultats de son engagement au Togo et sur les leçons à tirer...

L’Allemagne, la Belgique, la Commission Européenne, la France, les Pays-Bas, le Royaume-Uni et la Suède se sont associés pour mener une évaluation conjointe de leur coopération avec le Burundi sur la période 2005-2011. L’évaluation conjointe analyse les résultats d'efforts conjugués...

This report presents the results of the evaluation of the cooperation strategies adopted by the European Commission (EC) with the Republic of the Congo (RC)over the period 2000-2009. The main aims of the evaluation are to provide the services of the EC and a broader public with an independent...