We propose methods for testing hypothesis of non-causality at various horizons, as defined in Dufour and Renault (1998, Econometrica). We study in detail the case of VAR models and we propose linear methods based on running vector autoregressions at different horizons. While the hypotheses...

This paper intend to keep some lessons from the recent crisis for the monetary and fiscal stabilization policies. We develop six propositions about these policies : The monetary policy may be wrongly orientated before a crisis ; The non-orthodox monetary actions are effective but dangerous; The...

The objective of this reflection is to assess the effects of the current crisis on the Cameroonian economy faced with five shocks : (i) an epidemiological shock, (ii) a supply shock (iii) an internal demand shock, (iv) an oil shock, (v) a foreign demand shock. The joint occurrence of these...

To what extent can monetary and financial crises and cycles be explained through economic theories? This paper is aimed at highlighting why a reliance on economic theories may be necessary given certain flaws which have been revealed from the recent Financial Crisis. Namely, that economic and...

The Central Bank of Congo (BCC) lowered policy rate in response to uncertainty surrounding COVID-19. The impact of the pandemic on the economy is uncertain and depends on several factors. This cut in the policy rate would not help the economy to limit the fallout from COVID-19, so we should...

In this paper, we propose a simple econometric framework to disentangle the respective roles of monetary policy inertia and persistent shocks in interest rate rules. The procedure exploits the cross-equation restrictions provided by a DSGE model which is confronted to a monetary SVAR. We show...

In this article we estimate a time-varying " natural " rate of interest (TVNRI) for a synthetic euro area over the period 1979Q1-2002Q4 using a small backward-looking macroeconomic model, broadly following a methodology developed by Laubach and Williams (2003) for the United States. The Kalman...

This paper is dedicated at reconsidering objectives and instruments of monetary policy and also at redefining a policy mix in an economy which is systematically confronted to imbalances due to changes in technology, in the composition of demand or in the distribution of income, It is motivated...