[eng] A New Indicator to Identify Business Cycle Changes . For over half a century, economists have been trying to construct synthetic quantitative indicators to obtain a simple overview of a country's current economic situation and even forecast its growth over the coming months. An approach...

This paper implements a simulation-based method for estimating the parameters of Threshold Integrated Moving Average Models with contemporaneous asymmetry. Among many simulation-based methods we use the Indirect Inference method (II) with an autoregressive model as auxiliary model. To...

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the presence and determinants of the underwriting cycle in non-life insurance for France for the industry and for two individual lines which one long and one short for the period 1963-2004 and 1982-2004. First, the estimation of the AR(2) process of...