Statistical tests in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are typically based on large-sample approximations, involving the use of asymptotic distributions or bootstrap techniques. After documenting that such methods can be very misleading even with fairly large samples, especially when the number...

Monetary conditions and economic activity in the euro area. With a VAR model, we show that the economies of the euro area are strongly dependent on the monetary conditions (short term interest rate, exchange rate). In the long-run, the industrial activity of the area enters in a co-integrating...

In this paper, we review the macroeconomic literature on financial frictions and banking in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. Our work focuses first on the pioneer articles that have analyzed the amplification effects associated to the financial accelerator. We then shift our attention...

We estimate the reaction function of monetary policy in the Euro area and derive the Taylor-type policy rule that a would-be ECB would have followed since the beginning of the European Monetary System (1979-2003). We first follow the standard GMM methodology developed by Clarida, Galí and...

In this article we estimate a time-varying " natural " rate of interest (TVNRI) for a synthetic euro area over the period 1979Q1-2002Q4 using a small backward-looking macroeconomic model, broadly following a methodology developed by Laubach and Williams (2003) for the United States. The Kalman...

This article aims to examine the theoretical foundations and practical aspects underlying the creation of a common currency based on natural resources, within the space of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). On July 6, 2024, in Niamey, the leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger signed the...

This article aims to examine the theoretical foundations and practical aspects underlying the creation of a common currency based on natural resources, within the space of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). On July 6, 2024, in Niamey, the leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger signed the...

In this working paper, we analyze the causes of under bank financing in the WAEMU (West African economic and monetary union) zone is characterized by yet quasi-permanent bank liquidity and a stable currency (the CFA franc) with unlimited convertibility guaranteed by France. We have identified...

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dynamic response of a small subset of variables to exchange rate shocks by using a new method based on a set of theory-consistent sign restrictions for the purpose of identifying shocks over time (1995Q1–2019Q1) in the Moroccan economy. It is...

The development of microfinance has enabled millions of low-income actors around the world, who did not have access to conventional financing systems, to access financing for their production and / or consumption activities. In Senegal, the activities of Decentralized Financial Systems (DFS)...