This study is devoted to the analysis of the main effects, on the Belgian economy, of various forms of tax shifting aimed at increasing taxes on energy and decreasing other taxes(mainly taxes on labour). Results show that, if the increase in energy taxes is combined with a reduction of taxes on...

The objective of the paper is to investigate to what extent business cycles co-move in Germany, France and Italy. We use a large-scale database of non-stationary series for the euro area in order to assess the effect of common versus idiosyncratic shocks, as well as transitory versus permanent...

The 2000-2001 Turkish crisis has often been analysed in the literature without a solid econometric basis. This article presents a linear regression model as well as a logit model that enable us to measure the extent to which economic fundamentals and banking variables can account for the outcome...

La littérature sur l'instabilité macroéconomique couvre un champ extrêmement vaste qui se révèle par le spectre très large de mesures utilisées pour appréhender ce phénomène. Le choix de la mesure de l'instabilité macroéconomique apparait généralement peu discuté sous le...

This paper proposes new bridge equations for the Monthly Index of Business Activity (MIBA) published by the Banque de France. The MIBA is a forecasting tool for the quarterly GDP growth in France both for the current quarter and the next quarter, originally based on the surveys in the industrial...

L'objectif de ce travail consiste à faire ressortir, à côté de la saisonnalité (en partie due au climat), certains indicateurs économiques susceptibles d'expliquer la demande adressée à l'industrie touristique tunisienne: le prix, le revenu et l'offre. Ces différents indicateurs sont...

In this paper, the author describes reduced-form linear and non-linear econometric models developed to forecast and analyze quarterly data on output growth in the Canadian manufacturing sector from 1981 to 2003. Empirical evidence reported in the paper suggests that economic activity in the...

L’ISMA est un des principaux outils de diagnostic conjoncturel de la Banque de France. Publié chaque mois, il estime la croissance du PIB français pour le prochain trimestre, en se basant sur les données d’enquêtes de la Banque de France.

Short-term analysts use many tools to forecast economic activity. Among these tools, estimating and, then, simulating univariate models is very common. Most of the time the series used for the variable of interest as well as for the regressors are last available releases. Except for the latter...

In this paper, we propose a usual strategy in order to estimate the impact of a free trade area agreement between EU and Mediterranean Partner Countries (MPC's). In this frame, a dynamized Input-Output model is developed, obtaining the main economic impacts in each MPC country (employment, Value...