This study describes a simple model for predicting the real U.S. exchange rate. Starting with a large number of error-correction models, the authors choose the one giving the best out-of-sample forecasts over the period 1992Q3 - 2002Q1. In the selected model, the effective real exchange rate is...

Recent studies on general equilibrium models with transaction costs show that the dynamics of the real exchange rate are necessarily nonlinear. Our contribution to the literature on nonlinear price adjustment mechanisms is treefold. First, we model the real exchange rate by a Multi-Regime...

One of the most important instruments of economic policy of the opened countries is the exchange rate. It is considered both a mean of monetary regulation and a tool of outside competitiveness. Morocco plans to adopt the floating exchange rate regime, in the end of 2009. Indeed, the question...

The 2000-2001 Turkish crisis has often been analysed in the literature without a solid econometric basis. This article presents a linear regression model as well as a logit model that enable us to measure the extent to which economic fundamentals and banking variables can account for the outcome...

L’évolution de la croissance de l’économie mondiale joue un rôle crucial dans la conduite de la politique monétaire canadienne. À cet égard, les auteurs étudient l’utilité des indices mensuels des directeurs d’achats (PMI) pour la prévision de la croissance du PIB réel à court...

Already evoked in the years 1970 by American economists such as Sargen, the concept of country risk returned to the front of the economic scene following the financial crises of the years 1990.The concept of country risk is not new insofar as it is inherent in the swaps between two economic...

This study on overinvestment differs from the existing literature in that investment in machinery and equipment is modelled as a structural vector autoregression with identification achieved by imposing long-run restrictions, as in Blanchard and Quah (1989). The transitory components obtained...