In a Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) framework, a constant risk exposure is defined by the multiple of the strategy. This article proposes an alternative conditional multiple estimation model, which is based on an autoregressive quantile regression dynamic approach. We estimate...

Cet article vise à analyser le comportement cyclique de la série du cours de l'action Orange du 03/01/2000 à 02/02/2017 par la recherche de la non linéarité à travers d'une classe de modèles non paramétriques hétéroscédastiques, notée NAR-ARCH. L'identification des modèles non...

This paper studies the role of fluctuations in the aggregate price-earning ratio at different time-scales, for predicting stock returns and exploring the channels through which returns are forecasted. Using U.S. quartely data, we find that cycles in the price-earning ratio are strong and better...

This paper aims to analyze the cyclical behavior of stock exchange Orange prices from 01/03/2000 to 02/02/2017 by the research of nonlinearities through a class of heteroscedastic non parametric models. The identification of non parametric models requires the selection of the Markov coefficients...

French Abstract: Nicolas Firzli nous fait partager certains des travaux menés par le World Pensions Council (WPC) et résume ici une partie des interventions du G7 Pensions qui s'est tenu fin août dernier, en marge du Sommet du G7 de Biarritz. Il livre des pistes de réflexions précieuses...

This study probes nexus between electricity consumption and GDP for the electricity community of Togo and Benin using ARDL bounds testing approach of cointegration. Long-run equilibrium has been established among these variables for Benin. The study further establishes long- and short-run...

In recent years, the dynamics of M3 in the euro area have been driven by two factors: a strong preference for liquidity, observed between 2001 and 2003, followed by a normalisation, at a relatively moderate pace, of portfolio behaviour; as regards the counterparts, changes in M3 and net external...

We consider the problem of testing whether the observations X1, · · ·, Xn of a time series are independent with unspecified (possibly nonidentical) distributions symmetric about a common known median. Various bounds on the distributions of serial correlation coefficients are proposed:...

In this paper, we develop finite-sample inference procedures for stationary and nonstationary autoregressive (AR) models. The method is based on special properties of Markov processes and a split-sample technique. The results on Markovian processes (intercalary independence and truncation) only...

L'objectif est de spécifier la nature des comportements saisonniers de la demande de séjours touristiques en Tunisie en utilisant les outils récents d'analyse des séries temporelles mensuelles. Les séries disponibles (dépenses touristiques, prix, revenus, nombre de nuitées, capacités...