The aim of this work was to estimate a DSGE-SOE model for the DR Congo by referring to the Bayesian techniques for the quarterly data from 2002q1 to 2016q4 in order to analyze the relations between the main macroeconomic variables and to simulate the " impact of some major shocks on their...

This paper investigates the implications of cross-country heterogeneity within the euro area for the design of optimal monetary policy. We build an optimizing-based multi-country model (MCM) describing the euro area in which differences between structural parameters across countries are allowed....

This article analyzes the territorial resilience of the Mananjary district in Madagascar in response to tropical cyclones, focusing on the communes of Tsaravary and Tsarahafatra. The study employs a multivariate Probit model to examine three hypotheses: the relevance of resilience policies, the...

This work aims at analysing the dynamics of macroeconomic fluctuations in Cameroon, using a semi-structural VAR to determine the sources of its macroeconomic fluctuations. The results obtained point out that the macroeconomic fluctuations in Cameroon, even though influenced by external shocks,...

This article analyzes the process by which the monetary policy influences economies of the six countries of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) during the period 1980-2008. After having identified the channels of interest rate, credit and currency, we show that the...

This article analyzes the process by which the monetary policy influences economies of the six countries of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) during the period 1980-2008. After having identified the channels of interest rate, credit and currency, we show that the...

This aim of this study is to estimate the price of coffee and cocoa using a methodology based on Hodrick-Prescott filter, Kalman filter and a Markov Switching Model which, unlike linear models, allows the parameters to vary depending on the economic situation, the transitions between regimes are...

In this paper, we propose a usual strategy in order to estimate the impact of a free trade area agreement between EU and Mediterranean Partner Countries (MPC's). In this frame, a dynamized Input-Output model is developed, obtaining the main economic impacts in each MPC country (employment, Value...

This working paper presents a new coincident economic indicator developed by the COE, able to detect in real time peaks and troughs of the american business cycle. This probabilistic indicator is based on the Markov-Switching model proposed by Hamilton (1989), applied to various economic time...

La littérature sur l'instabilité macroéconomique couvre un champ extrêmement vaste qui se révèle par le spectre très large de mesures utilisées pour appréhender ce phénomène. Le choix de la mesure de l'instabilité macroéconomique apparait généralement peu discuté sous le...