Using methods from machine learning we show that fundamentals from simple exchange rate models (PPP or UIRP) or Taylor-rule based models lead to improved exchange rate forecasts for major currencies over the floating period era 1973--2014 at a 1-month forecast horizon which beat the no-change...

Tunisia has experienced a performance when pursuing a constant real exchange rate rule. The limitations of this rule are beginning to emerge in the context of a more open economy, which desire to relax capital controls. This paper estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate of the dinar vis...

This paper analyses Cape Verde's exchange rate policy and investigates whether viable alternatives exist. Cape Verde currently operates a fixed exchange rate regime which, since 1999, links the national currency to the euro. The fixed exchange rate has many benefits, but authorities have to...

Most studies on equilibrium exchange rates focus on a limited number of G7 countries. But in a situation of world imbalances, emerging countries can no longer be excluded. The study of all equilibrium exchange rates is delicate. First, the trade model has to be balanced at the aggregate level....

This study describes a simple model for predicting the real U.S. exchange rate. Starting with a large number of error-correction models, the authors choose the one giving the best out-of-sample forecasts over the period 1992Q3 - 2002Q1. In the selected model, the effective real exchange rate is...

French Abstract: La crise de la zone euro illustre les carences des mécanismes d'ajustements dans une union monétaire caractérisée par une forte hétérogénéité. Cette situation reflète un diagnostic simple. Au niveau de l'ensemble de la zone, l'euro est proche de son taux d'équilibre....

Les marches derives ont connu une tres forte expansion ces dernieres annees. Une large variete d'options et de futures sont quotidiennement echanges sur indices boursiers, taux d'interet, obligations et devises. Ces marches, en traitant l'information disponible plus rapidement que les marches au...