The main objective of this study is to look for the best model for forecasting inflation rate and real growth for each CEMAC country. Using AR, VAR and BVAR models, it is clear from our study that forecasts made from Bayesian models have a higher predictive power than those made by classical...

We propose methods for testing hypothesis of non-causality at various horizons, as defined in Dufour and Renault (1998, Econometrica). We study in detail the case of VAR models and we propose linear methods based on running vector autoregressions at different horizons. While the hypotheses...

This paper proposes an indirect inference (Gourieroux, Monfort and Renault, 1993; Smith, 1993) estimation method for a large class of dynamic equilibrium models. Our approach is based on the observation that the econometric structure of these systems naturally generates auxiliary equilibria that can...

We apply several recently proposed tests for structural breaks in conditional variance and covariance dynamics. The tests apply to both the class of ARCH and SV type processes and allow for long memory features. We also apply them to data-driven volatility estimators using high-frequency data...

Short-term analysts use many tools to forecast economic activity. Among these tools, estimating and, then, simulating univariate models is very common. Most of the time the series used for the variable of interest as well as for the regressors are last available releases. Except for the latter...

The structure of a national economy is generally correlated with the stage of economic development. In economic history, it was demonstrated a trend from a first stage when agriculture predominated to last stage when the sector of services is the largest. In this context, the complex...

The monetary policy conducted by the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) faces many challenges, including the need to fight against inflation, which is driven mainly by the volatility of commodity prices on international markets. It is also fall to common criticisms about the lack of...

The excess liquidity of commercial banks is very often mentioned in the CEMAC as one of the limits of monetary policy implementation by BEAC. In this paper, we tried to address excess reserves in the CEMAC banking system looking from the point of view of commercial banks. Indeed, commercial...

Using Monte Carlo experiments, we assessed the finite sample properties of dynamic panel data estimators with fixed effects when < , the results tell us that, we must to have 30 for using within estimator who is, among all estimators, the best when < with very low.

Using Monte Carlo experiments, we assessed the finite sample properties of dynamic panel data estimators with fixed effects when N =30.