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Les prévisions conditionnelles sont-elles plus précises que les prévisions inconditionnelles dans les projections de croissance et d’inflation en zone CEMAC ?

Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain; Bikai, Landry - 2019

This study compares the predictive performance of the conditional forecasting technique against the unconditional technique. The conditional technique consist of taking into account the information available on an endogenous variable over part of the forecast horizon. We develop a Bayesian VAR...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015269551

Mesurer l'instabilité macroéconomique: Applications aux données de recettes d'exportation, 1970-2005

Cariolle, Joël - 2012

La littérature sur l'instabilité macroéconomique couvre un champ extrêmement vaste qui se révèle par le spectre très large de mesures utilisées pour appréhender ce phénomène. Le choix de la mesure de l'instabilité macroéconomique apparait généralement peu discuté sous le...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014000796

First results series or last available series: which series to use? A real-time illustration for the forecasting of French quarterly GDP growth

MINODIER, C. - Département des Études Économiques d'Ensemble (D3E), … - 2010

univariate models is very common. Most of the time the series used for the variable of interest as well as for the regressors are … first published data (first results series also called "real time" data) instead of last available series. The interest of … results) to forecast GDP growth in real time. It turns out that to forecast the first published value of GDP quarterly growth …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008466036