A policy mix characterized by a monetary policy whose main objective is price stability and fiscal policy under fiscal discipline can he permit to keep prices and production levels of social optimum to sustain economic growth ? In this paper, an index of the policy mix is built for grouping into...

In this paper, we propose a simple econometric framework to disentangle the respective roles of monetary policy inertia and persistent shocks in interest rate rules. The procedure exploits the cross-equation restrictions provided by a DSGE model which is confronted to a monetary SVAR. We show...

Euro area countries as a whole have experienced a marked downward trend over the 1980s. Over this period, the unemployment rate has increased and economic activity has been sluggish. Changes in the implicit inflation target, viewed as low frequency movements of inflation, might possibly explain...

Le 5ème symposium international de la Banque de France a porté sur les effets de la globalisation sur l’inflation et les récentes turbulences financières, ainsi que sur leurs éventuelles implications pour la conduite de la politique monétaire.

We build a model with frictional unemployment and staggered wage bargaining and we assume that hours worked are negotiated every period. We analyze the role of workers? bargaining power in the hours negotiation on unemployment volatility and inflation persistence. The closer to zero is this...

In this paper, we seek to estimate the sacrifice ratio of the euro area using a small DSGE model where prices and wages are sticky. We estimate model's parameters so as to minimize the distance between VAR-based and model-based covariances of a set of variables. The estimated value of the...

Until the current economic crisis, the recovery capacity of the American and French labour markets had often been compared. The United States had been considered more "resilient", namely more affected by cyclical shocks in the short term but more quickly coming back to their initial path in the...

This paper investigates how the identification assumptions of monetary policy shocks modify the inference in a standard DSGE model. Considering SVAR models in which either the interest rate is predetermined for money or these two monetary variables are simultaneously determined, two DSGE models...

This article aims at estimating leading indicators of the American economy with financial variables. We use two types of hidden Markov chains models, a quantitative one (Krolzig (1997)) and a qualitative one (Gregoir and Lenglart (2000)). These models provide a robust and reliable framework to...